Coastal risks occur at different time scales, ranging from extreme events to gradual changes over very long timeframes. As a result, coastal risks are characterised by so-called « deep » uncertainties, in respect to both, scientific projections and risk management. Examples of such deep uncertainties are for instance the possibility that Artic ice sheets will collapse earlier than predicted, or an increase in the population exposed to coastal risks. This transversal work package examines such uncertainties, including « deep » uncertainties, based on the results of WP 1-3.
To do so, the WP oursues a dual approach. On the one hand, the WP seeks to identify and characterise uncertainties as they appear in the models and trajectories of climate researchers of the project. On the other hand, the WP draws on social science methods such as surveys and semi-structured intervviews to capture the different ways in which uncertainties are perceived and used, by the researchers involved in the project as well as by decision-makers and other practitioners and stakeholders involved in coastal risk management.
The WP thus seeks to confront these two perspectives and examine how perceptions of uncertainties of current and future coastal risks in the overseas islands diverge between practitioners and scholar. The WP thus helps to better link science and practice / policy-making, and to better integrate uncertainties in coastal risk management.